Longshot Bets Losing 98% of the Time Still Dominate Prediction Markets

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have become magnets for longshot wagers, with roughly half of all trading volume on Kalshi tied to bets offering potential returns of at least 1,000%. That concentration in improbable outcomes is drawing fresh scrutiny as the data increasingly shows how costly these bets have been for participants. According to the figures discussed, money staked on "yes" longshots has lost 15% on Kalshi and 27% on Polymarket since early 2025 — a striking track record given how much activity these contracts attract. Bloomberg's Denitsa Tsekova joins the program to walk through the numbers and explain what they reveal about how traders are using these platforms. The segment explores why longshot contracts remain so popular despite their poor returns, and what the pattern suggests about the behavior of bettors in fast-growing prediction markets.