NFA Live: Bitcoin, Rates, and the S&P—Navigating a Divided Market

This NFA Live session works through a dense macro and crypto agenda, starting with long-end yields falling on hot inflation and what that divergence signals about market expectations. The discussion then moves to Fed credibility and October rate expectations, followed by equity risk premium and yield-curve warnings that frame the broader risk environment. Bitcoin takes center stage in the middle of the stream: ETF flows, rate hikes, and recent weakness are weighed against the 200-week average and a long-term buying thesis. The conversation also touches on stimulus checks and currency debasement, energy headlines and fuel prices, clean-energy investment, and China's depleted reserves and refining constraints. A midterm-year rate-hike playbook and a look at Bitcoin dominance round out the analysis. The through-line is a market pulled between supportive long-term signals and near-term macro stress, with the hosts mapping how each data point feeds into positioning.